Astonishment in Europe at some PMI data that make believe in the economic recovery

Posted on February 22, 2022 We start a new week marked by tension between Russia and the West over Ukraine. It seemed like a more or less calm day waiting for the meeting between Russia and the United States, which together with the American holiday and the strong PMI data in Europe led the German bond to hit a maximum of 0.23bp. In the European macro data section, yesterday we knew the PMIs, which, in general, both by country and in the Eurozone as a whole, surprised on the upside. The joint manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone fell slightly to 58.4 (58.7 forecast), while the integrated and services PMI clearly exceeded expectations with readings of 55.8 in both cases (52.7 and 52 forecast respectively). . The economic recovery appears to be gaining strength, as PMIs show that the Eurozone and UK economies have turned around after a subdued and uncertain start to the year, and while inflation weighs on the coming months, the strength of orders and employment point to a strong recovery. Short-term forecasts are subject to the evolution of supply chains and high inflation, which could affect the coming months. On the other hand, the strength of orders and the evolution of employment, with solid data, can support a strong recovery in the future. At the last minute, the market turned around with the announcement of Russia recognizing the independence of the separatist republics, with the United States and Europe announcing sanctions, which caused the German bond to close in the 0.15bp area after this. Today we have IFO data in Germany, although the geopolitical conflict will be what sets the market trend. Fears that Russia could invade Ukraine have sent bond markets tumbling this month, as investors put aside concerns about rising interest rates in favor of sovereign debt. The German 10yr benchmark yield fell almost 9bps last week in its biggest weekly drop since November last year. Yields across the Eurozone rose on Monday as sentiment in financial markets picked up, denting demand for safe-haven assets. Bund yields rose 1-2bps to 0.22%, above a one-week low of 0.19%. For their part, the Italian and Spanish benchmarks widened 4-7bps to levels of 1.91% and 1.23%, respectively. INFORMATIONTitleAstonishment in Europe at some PMI data that make us believe in the economic recoveryDescriptionWe are starting a new week marked by tension between Russia and the West over Ukraine. It seemed like a more or less calm day waiting for the meeting between Russia and the United States, which together with the American holiday and the strong PMI data in Europe led the German bond to hit a maximum of 0.23bp. Author GLOBALCAJA

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